The technical indicators show contradictory signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has remained in the neutral range of 55-65 on the daily chart, but has shown a top divergence on the weekly chart. The on-chain MVRV ratio is currently 2.3, lower than the bull market peak of 3.8 in 2021, but higher than the one-year moving average of 1.9. It is worth noting that the funding rate for BTC/USD perpetual contracts on Binance Exchange has reached a 12-month high of 0.06%, indicating that leveraged long positions are overly crowded. Derivatives data platform Coinglass statistics show that on May 27th, the single-day margin call amount reached 270 million US dollars, among which 83% were long positions.
Regulatory dynamics have become the biggest variable. In May 2024, the US SEC postponed the approval of the Ethereum ETF, causing the crypto market to lose 120 billion US dollars in market value in a single day. However, the FIT21 bill passed by the House of Representatives clearly defines the commodity nature of digital assets, raising the completion rate of industry compliance framework establishment to 70%. It is worth noting that in June, the Japanese pension fund GPIF announced that it would allocate 1% of its assets to Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank's digital asset custody scale has reached 4.5 billion US dollars, and the annual growth rate of the entry rate of traditional financial institutions has reached 140%.
At the macroeconomic level, the CME FedWatch tool indicates that the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September to rise to 75%. Historical retrospectation shows that the average quarterly return rate of Bitcoin during the interest rate cut cycle was 58%. CoinShares' research report indicates that when the real interest rate is below 1%, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold rises to 0.86. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against geopolitical risks. During the Israeli-Kazakhstan conflict, the daily volatility of Bitcoin soared to 120%, significantly higher than the 18% of the S&P 500 index. According to the predictions of 10 institutions of Bloomberg, the median target of bitcoin price usd in Q3 2024 is $85,000, with a confidence interval of ±18.7%.
Is The Bitcoin Price In USD Expected To Rise?
The inflow of funds into global Bitcoin spot ETFs has continued to set records. In the first half of 2024, the net new assets under management exceeded 15 billion US dollars, among which the scale of BlackRock's IBIT single product exceeded 20 billion US dollars. Institutional participation has significantly increased. According to Fidelity's Q2 2024 report, the proportion of digital asset allocation by its institutional clients rose from 7.3% in 2023 to 12.1%, directly driving bitcoin price usd to rise by 63% within three months after the halving cycle. According to monitoring by on-chain data service provider Glassnode, the current supply ratio of long-term holders (LTH) has reached 76.5%, hitting a historical peak, which usually indicates a decrease in market selling pressure. However, the open interest of CME Bitcoin futures has soared by 8 billion US dollars to 38 billion US dollars, and the risk of derivative leverage is accumulating.
The fourth block reward halving will be completed in April 2024, reducing the daily mining output from 900 BTC to 450. Historical data shows that the average return rate of Bitcoin within 12 months after the first three halvings reached 425%. The current overall network computing power remains at a high level of 600 EH/s. Although the shutdown of some mining machines has led to a short-term 15% drop in computing power, listed companies like Bitfarms have increased the computing power efficiency per unit to 38J/TH by deploying new-generation mining machines, offsetting some of the cost pressure. Riot Platforms' financial report disclosed that its mining cost for the first quarter of 2024 remained at $22,500 per BTC, significantly lower than the market trading price.
The technical indicators show contradictory signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has remained in the neutral range of 55-65 on the daily chart, but has shown a top divergence on the weekly chart. The on-chain MVRV ratio is currently 2.3, lower than the bull market peak of 3.8 in 2021, but higher than the one-year moving average of 1.9. It is worth noting that the funding rate for BTC/USD perpetual contracts on Binance Exchange has reached a 12-month high of 0.06%, indicating that leveraged long positions are overly crowded. Derivatives data platform Coinglass statistics show that on May 27th, the single-day margin call amount reached 270 million US dollars, among which 83% were long positions.
Regulatory dynamics have become the biggest variable. In May 2024, the US SEC postponed the approval of the Ethereum ETF, causing the crypto market to lose 120 billion US dollars in market value in a single day. However, the FIT21 bill passed by the House of Representatives clearly defines the commodity nature of digital assets, raising the completion rate of industry compliance framework establishment to 70%. It is worth noting that in June, the Japanese pension fund GPIF announced that it would allocate 1% of its assets to Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank's digital asset custody scale has reached 4.5 billion US dollars, and the annual growth rate of the entry rate of traditional financial institutions has reached 140%.
At the macroeconomic level, the CME FedWatch tool indicates that the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September to rise to 75%. Historical retrospectation shows that the average quarterly return rate of Bitcoin during the interest rate cut cycle was 58%. CoinShares' research report indicates that when the real interest rate is below 1%, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold rises to 0.86. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against geopolitical risks. During the Israeli-Kazakhstan conflict, the daily volatility of Bitcoin soared to 120%, significantly higher than the 18% of the S&P 500 index. According to the predictions of 10 institutions of Bloomberg, the median target of bitcoin price usd in Q3 2024 is $85,000, with a confidence interval of ±18.7%.
The technical indicators show contradictory signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has remained in the neutral range of 55-65 on the daily chart, but has shown a top divergence on the weekly chart. The on-chain MVRV ratio is currently 2.3, lower than the bull market peak of 3.8 in 2021, but higher than the one-year moving average of 1.9. It is worth noting that the funding rate for BTC/USD perpetual contracts on Binance Exchange has reached a 12-month high of 0.06%, indicating that leveraged long positions are overly crowded. Derivatives data platform Coinglass statistics show that on May 27th, the single-day margin call amount reached 270 million US dollars, among which 83% were long positions.
Regulatory dynamics have become the biggest variable. In May 2024, the US SEC postponed the approval of the Ethereum ETF, causing the crypto market to lose 120 billion US dollars in market value in a single day. However, the FIT21 bill passed by the House of Representatives clearly defines the commodity nature of digital assets, raising the completion rate of industry compliance framework establishment to 70%. It is worth noting that in June, the Japanese pension fund GPIF announced that it would allocate 1% of its assets to Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank's digital asset custody scale has reached 4.5 billion US dollars, and the annual growth rate of the entry rate of traditional financial institutions has reached 140%.
At the macroeconomic level, the CME FedWatch tool indicates that the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September to rise to 75%. Historical retrospectation shows that the average quarterly return rate of Bitcoin during the interest rate cut cycle was 58%. CoinShares' research report indicates that when the real interest rate is below 1%, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold rises to 0.86. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against geopolitical risks. During the Israeli-Kazakhstan conflict, the daily volatility of Bitcoin soared to 120%, significantly higher than the 18% of the S&P 500 index. According to the predictions of 10 institutions of Bloomberg, the median target of bitcoin price usd in Q3 2024 is $85,000, with a confidence interval of ±18.7%.